2 docs tagged with "heuristics"

Elimination by Aspects (EBA) is a decision-making mental model developed by psychologist Amos Tversky (1972) that simplifies complex multi-attribute choices by sequentially eliminating options that fail to meet the most important criteria. Rather than trying to evaluate all attributes of all options simultaneously, EBA focuses on one attribute at a time — removing options that don't meet the threshold — until only one option remains.

The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that independent random events are influenced by previous outcomes — specifically, that a sequence of outcomes in one direction makes the opposite outcome more likely. It arises from a misunderstanding of randomness and the representativeness heuristic, and leads to systematically flawed predictions in gambling, investing, sports, and any domain involving independent probabilistic events.